GLA's Projected demand for school places
A 2015 study by the Greater London Authority projected that, across London, at least 3,500 extra state secondary classes will be needed by September 2024, equivalent to almost 90 standard 1,200-pupil secondary schools. That headline figure is a minimum because it assumes the proportion of children going to private schools will remain static, however this assumption requires an additional 600 secondary classes be provided in the independent sector too.
The graph below shows the projected increase in places needed for the Middlesex side of Richmond Borough, which is the area that Turing House has been established to serve. As Richmond was highlighted in the report as one of three boroughs that is particularly sensitive to the assumptions that are made about the proportions of children going private, we have included both the most optimistic (blue) and pessimistic (orange) projections.
The addition of Turing House in 2015 and the Richmond Upon Thames School (RTS) in 2017, will provide 300 additional places per year, and a small number of additional places have been provided through expansion at other local schools. If the GLA's projections are correct then, in addition to these, our area may need additional places by around 2020. The exact number of places needed will depend heavily on whether additional capacity is provided in the private sector, and whether there are significant changes in cross-border patterns of movement (Richmond is currently a net importer of secondary school pupils).
Richmond's own current School Place Planning Strategy indicates that no further places are needed on the Middlesex side of the borough before 2024. The GLA report says "the pan-London demand model ... does not attempt to provide an alternative to [Local Authority] projections; rather it provides a broader strategic overview of where demand may arise. The results ... should not be compared to local authority roll projections".